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Roulette Prediction — Where Will the Ball Land?
Ah, the infamous game of roulette! Roulette is a casino table game, which is played by betting which number on the spinning wheel the ball is going to land on. However, betting on roulette has always been a tough task. It’s something that requires some thought and a whole lot of luck! So how do you figure out which numbers you should be betting on?
Well, that is a complicated question, to say the least. Predicting the pocket number the ball is going to fall in is very tough. Your best bet (pun intended!) is to attempt to overcome the infamous house edge, which is 5.26% on American roulette and 2.7% on European. So your first goal should be to try and play European roulette if you get the chance.
Many great minds have tried to crack the code. However, even the brilliant Albert Einstein said that the only winner in roulette is the house. But in an odd twist of irony, having some knowledge of physics can really be of assistance to you on your epic quest of predicting the roulette outcomes!
Calculating the Physics of the Roulette Wheel
The key is knowing the exact location of the ball and the relative speeds of both the wheel and the ball itself. The method requires attentive observation and thorough recording of the initial conditions. Through this method, researchers were able to produce earnings of around 20% consistently, instead of the expected loss (house edge) of 2.7% (for European roulette).
Any slants in the roulette table can significantly increase the predicted returns.
So it seems that Isaac Newton is the key to predicting roulette.
However, it bears mentioning that roulette is purely a game of chance, and in the end, what will make or break you is Lady Luck alone!
What Happens During a Spin
When the dealer releases the ball, it gradually loses speed and momentum and falls into one of the pockets. Sometimes, the ball can bounce off of the so-called diamond (metal deflector) and unceremoniously fall in a pocket without much bouncing around. Other times, it will hit the diamond and jump around everywhere. That means you can never predict where the ball is going to land. However, that’s not the point of roulette prediction. The point is simply to overcome the house edge.
Ah, the good old dealer signatures, or otherwise called sector slicing (which is way cooler sounding). Many think it’s impossible for dealers to be able to hit certain sections of the wheel, but it actually is a plausible possibility. But even if this grants you better odds in theory, it’s a little bit harder than that in practice.
On the other hand, many dealers nowadays claim that sector slicing has become more or less impossible due to more advanced table designs (e.g., shallower pockets). In addition, the fact that many dealers are trained to spin the ball when they throw it is something that further complicates the issue, making the game even more unpredictable than it was before!
Using Unconscious Dealer Signatures to Beat Roulette
Thankfully, you humans are flawed creatures anyways; and some dealers can have biased ball throws without even knowing it!
You see, in time, most dealers create a routine for themselves when spinning the ball. The routine they end up subconsciously developing will usually be a surprisingly consistent one; thanks to the acquired rhythm and muscle memory. It’s all automatic!
So when a dealer picks up the ball and wants to spin it again, they don’t even think about it — they just spin it again, and again, and again. That causes certain habits to form, and the movement embeds itself in their muscle memory.
Problems arise, however, when the ball hits the bumpers, which cause random and unpredictable results. That makes this technique a relatively tricky one to use!
I mean, in the end, you have nothing to lose; if the technique doesn’t work, well then — you just have a regular game of good ol’ roulette!
If you could determine when the ball had been spinning for exactly 1,300ms (or 1.3s) per revolution, you could check the number under the aforementioned reference diamond and write the information down. Then, wait for the ball to stop — this leaves you with two numbers (A and B, respectively). Let’s assume those are 0 and 21. That demonstrates that the ball landed five numbers clockwise from your initial reference number.
This experiment further demonstrates that, starting from our reference number (A), the ball keeps spinning for around 12.5 seconds before it hits the diamond and bounces approximately 9 pockets, ending up about five numbers away from the reference number, as it comes to fall on the final winning number (B).
Well I know that was hard to keep up with, buddy! But beating roulette is hard work, and it requires some math to do it. But what I’ve outlined here is the basic version of visual ballistics.
Pocket Computers Might Help You Predict Where the Ball Falls
Look, before I even start telling you about this, you need to understand one thing — use of pocket computers is illegal, and you can get into trouble if you use them; or even end up in jail!
A pocket computer is basically a tool which helps you predict that elusive winning number. It determines the speed of the ball. The whole thing is based on the presupposition that the ball’s speed is the same after each spin. It also determines the angle at which the ball will hit the wheel and makes a prediction on which number you should bet. The pocket computer does everything you’d need to do manually in the other methods. However, even the computer itself is relatively unreliable.
Pockets Computers vs. Visual Ballistics
Well, it’s practically the same thing, but pocket roulette computers make it possible for you to avoid doing any maths. There is no accuracy difference between someone experienced in visual ballistics and a pocket computer. “Why?” I can hear you ask. Because they do the exact same thing — they simply estimate when there are about seven ball revolutions left; then they both “tune” by measuring how far away the winning number (the aforementioned B) is from the reference number (the aforementioned A) and adjust.
Biased Wheels Can Help You Beat Roulette
Ah, I remember the good old days, when this was much more common! You see, determining the result on the basis of biased wheels wholly depends on there actually being some biased wheels to begin with! So this technique was much more prominent in earlier times when mechanical wheels were used in roulette. However, this is much harder in today’s digital world, when computerised wheels are much more balanced and unbiased.
So it’s highly unfortunate that out of the techniques we’ve talked about in this article, this one works the best. However, you will struggle to find a casino which has this older type of roulette wheel. Still, if you do find one, you can be sure this method will be effective!
Now, I know that I’ve been talking about predicting this or predicting that or computer this calculation that, but how do you actually do that?
Most people resort to excel sheets or other specialised programs, trying to test millions upon millions of spins in order to come up with the correct number. However, if you were an advanced alien lifeform like myself, you’d actually come to realise pretty quickly that everything you need is some basic knowledge of the principles of probability. Because with that, you can answer most questions about the probability of any outcome, just by using a simple equation.
The first thing you need to understand is the factorial, which is signified by the symbol: !
Basically, it means multiplying a series of descending natural numbers.
Why does this matter, you ask? In roulette, a factorial showcases in how many different ways distinct numbers can be arranged, without repeating the same ones. This can create some absolutely huge numbers. Let’s take European roulette as our test subject. European roulette has a whopping 37 numbers, which means:
37! = 1.3763753×1043
That turns out to be trillions and trillions of different combinations of the 37 roulette numbers, and that’s without even considering the possibility of repetitions of numbers.
The Probability Equation
The probability equation is the ultimate mathematical formula for determining the odds of any roulette combination.
But first, we’ll define the various parameters:
The probability P(e) of the event E = [ Bet B appearing x times in n spins ]
Or more simply:
P(e) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!)) P(b)x (1-P(b))n-x
However, if you want to continue down the rabbit hole, you can look up Binomial distribution, which is the basis for roulette probability. But before we go on, I, Aussie, have to stress the difference between probability and expectation.
So I’ll try and demonstrate this powerful formula for you.
Let’s just say that you want to determine the probability of two Blacks in three spins. However, let’s get one thing clear — this formula determines the likelihood of a specific event, which means precisely two Blacks rather than two or more.
This means the parameters are:
n = 3 (total spins)
x = 2 (Black numbers/winning spins)
P(b) = 0.5 (the probability of Black in each spin — we ignore the zero for simplicity)
P(e) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!)) P(b)x (1-P(b))n-x
P(e) = (3!/(2!(3-2)!)) 0.52 (1-0.5)3-2
P(e) = (3!/(2!1!)) 0.52 0.51
P(e) = (3×2×1/2×1×1) 0.25× 0.5
P(e) = (3/1) 0.25× 0.5
P(e) = 3 × 0.125 = 0,375
Thus, my friend, the probability in 3 spins to get exactly two black numbers is 0,375, or 37.5%, or basically, slightly more than 1 in 3. These numbers are just different ways of expressing the same chances.
The Dozens Example
Let us say we’re determined to calculate the theoretical probability of a very specific dozen popping up exactly two times in six spins.
n = 6
x = 2
P(b) = 12/37
P(e) = (6!/(2!(6-2)!)) (12/37)2 (1-12/37)6-2
P(e) = (6×5×4!/(2!4!)) 0.3242 0.6764
P(e) = (30/2) 0.105× 0.209
P(e) = 15 × 0,022
P(e) = 0,329 or 32,9% or around 1/3
A Single Number Example
In European roulette, the theoretical probability of a specific number popping up is 1 in 37, or in other words, 2,7%; but what is the likelihood of a specific number not appearing even once in 37 spins?
Using the same formula we’ve been using this whole time, the probability of a specific number not making an appearance at all during those 37 spins is 0.362 or 36.2%, while the odds of it appearing twice are (0.186 or 18.6%).
This formula can be applied to determine any roulette probability by using the form of “Bet B hitting x times in n spins.”
Whew, there you go! I know that was a lot, but the game of roulette is a complex one, and really deserves some serious effort. And as you can clearly see now, roulette really is a game of chance; and predicting the outcomes is well-nigh impossible, or at least requires extremely specific circumstances.
So your best bet might just be to have fun instead of stressing about the various odds and equations of what you have.
Good luck, and have fun! Remember — always be responsible!
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